At this point it does look like a “strong to very strong” El Niño is developing in the Equatorial Pacific and according to NOAA it will likely continue through January-March 2027.

So what does this mean for Jackson Hole in particular? The answer may be found in the historical record, but that is purely based on the statistical odds.

Here is the breakdown of the last 50-some winter seasons comparing season snowfall data from the Rendezvous Bowl weather station’s data, at @ the 9,600-ft. elevation.

(Note: 1980-81 season is missing, which was a neutral, or No Niño winter).

The Comparison

In the 50 winter seasons comparing the total snowfall at Rendezvous Bowl, from 1974-75 to 2025-26, there were:

20 La Niña Winters: 13 had above average snowfall. 7 had below average snowfall.

15 El Niño Winters: 4 had above average snowfall. 11 had below average snowfall.

15 No Niño Winters: 6 had above average snowfall. 9 had below average snowfall.

Based on the long-term average snowfall of 396 inches, between October 1st and April 1st,  Jackson Hole Mountain Resort has had 23 winters that were above that baseline and 27 winters below that line.

However, in the last 11 seasons, between 2015-16 and 2025-26, JHMR had above average snowfall in 9 of the last 11 winters. Only 2025-26 and 2021-22 were below average.

In the last 11 years, JHMR had 3 El Niño Winters, which were all above average for snowfall.
There were 7 La Niña Winters, 5 were above average snowfall, 2 had below average snowfall.
And there was 1 No Niño Winter, which had well above average snowfall (560 inches in 2026-17).

Another amazing fact is that 6 out of the top-ten snowiest winters of the last 50 years at JHMR occurred in the last 11 winter seasons.

Who says we don’t get snow like we used to?

Winter Outlooks

I try to stay as far away from making long-range predictions as I can! One, the weather is difficult enough to forecast even a few days out, let alone a few months out. And two, chances are the forecast might coincide with the actual weather for parts of a 3 month period, but not always for the whole period.

Nevertheless, people want to know, or want to at least have something to hang their hats, or hopes, on for the coming winter season as they dream of that perfect powder season…..like we have seen here in Jackson, as mentioned above, more often than not over the last 10-plus years.

So, to satiate inquiring powder brains, here are some official forecasts to ponder for the coming winter season from a few different sources.

NOAA’s Outlook

The three-month seasonal outlook for December 2026 through February 2027 shows that temperatures in Western Wyoming are leaning above normal, and precipitation has an “Equal Chance” of being above, below, or near normal. Not much help there. NOAA’s outlook for the prior 3-month period, for November-December-January, looked about the same. So did their January-February-March outlook.

Follow along this season here: NOAA 3-Month Outlook page

Old Farmer’s Almanac

This year’s version of the Winter Forecast from the Old Farmer’s Almanac looks promising. “Mild and Snowy” for Western Wyoming. I’ll take that!

Farmers’ Almanac Forecast

The other Farmers’ Almanac, which has been around a little longer than the Old Farmer’s one, has a little different forecast for western Wyoming: “Cold, Snowy at times and breezy”. And for the Pacific Northwest, including Eastern Idaho it says,” More changeable, less dependable snow”. Hmmm? Sound like they are hedging their bets a little bit more.

The bottom-line is, the likelihood of two below average snowfall years in a row here in Jackson Hole is pretty small, not that it hasn’t happened in the past, and not since 2011-12 & 2012-13.

What the character of this coming winter really depends on is how the weather patterns set up out in the Pacific, and the positioning of the Jet Stream and its ability to carry Pacific moisture this far inland.

While El Niño is defined by warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, it takes some pools of cold water in the Northern Pacific to really set up a good clash of the air masses to develop big storm systems.

I’ll be watching for that in the coming months, but make no prediction about when that might happen, not this far out at least.

Post by mountainweather.com meteorologist Jim Woodmencey

The fall season has begun here in Jackson Hole, with thoughts of the winter yet to come. But before jumping ahead and speculating on what kind of winter we are going to have, I thought it would be worth taking one last look in the rearview mirror at this past summer’s weather.

Summer’s High Temperatures

All anyone complained about this summer was how hot it was. It was certainly warmer than average overall, but remarkably it was not the daily high temperatures that were unusual.

The average high temperature in June 2026 was almost 2 degrees cooler than the long-term average, 70.2 degrees vs. 72 degrees. July’s average was a little more than one degree warmer than normal, 83.3 degrees vs. 82 degrees. August 2026 ended up a half degree cooler than average, 79.5 degrees vs. 80 degrees.

Overall, this summer’s average high temperature for June, July, and August combined was just a few tenths of a degree cooler than the long-term average high temperature, 77.7 degrees vs. 78 degrees. Call it normal.

The hottest day of the summer, according to the official thermometer at the Jackson Climate Station, was 92 degrees on July 12th, 2026.

While no extremely hot temperatures made records this summer, Jackson did break some records for coldest maximum temperatures. On June 27th the high temperature in town was 56 degrees, breaking the old record for that date of 57°F from 1965. Then on August 13th, 2026, the official high temperature in Jackson was only 60 degrees, breaking the record for the coldest maximum temperature for that date. The old record was 63 degrees, set in 1978.

Number of Hot Days

The Town of Jackson had a total of 48 days this summer with high temperatures of 80 degrees or warmer. The average number of days with 80 degrees or warmer in a summer is 44. Last summer, 2025, there were 41 days of 80 degrees or warmer. The record summer of 1988 had 78 days with highs of 80 degrees or warmer in June, July, and August.

Officially, there was a total of 5 days this summer with high temperatures of 90 degrees or warmer in town. Last summer, 2025, there was only one day. The historical average number of days of 90 or greater in Jackson is 3 days per year. The record year was in 2003, with 29 days that hit 90 degrees or above.

So, if you thought this summer was hot, you either forgot about 1988 and 2003, or you weren’t here.

Summer’s Low Temperatures

The real heat this summer came from much warmer than normal overnight low temperatures. The average low temperature this summer, for June through August 2026 was 43 degrees. That’s four degrees warmer than the historic average of 39 degrees and qualified as the fourth warmest on record.

Consistently warmer overnight temps this summer can be attributed to a very active monsoon, which keeps relative humidities higher, making the air feel “muggy”, and not allowing temperatures to cool down as much overnight.

On July 21st, 2026, the overnight low temperature in town only got down to 62 degrees. That not only broke the record for that date, but it also broke the record for the warmest overnight low temperature for the month of July in Jackson. The old record was 61 degrees on July 23rd, 1994.

Record Warm Low Temps

Two other daily records were also broken this summer. On July 22nd, 2026, the overnight low was 60 degrees, the old record for that date was 61 degrees from 1994. And again, on August 22nd, 2026, the low overnight was only 56 degrees, beating the old record of 57 degrees from August 22nd, 1989.

Oddly enough, these warmer overnight lows were contrasted by a few cold mornings. This summer season was bookended by lows in the 20’s. On June 1st, 2026, the low temperature in town was 21 degrees. That was the coldest day of this summer. Then on August 31st, 2026, it got down to 29 degrees in Jackson to end the season.

That 21 degree reading on June 1st, combined with a low temperature of 16 degrees back on May 19, 2026 may have been the reason that the Arrowleaf Balsamroot flowers never bloomed this year. Two hard frosts like that at that time of year could definitely do that kind of damage.

To illustrate how odd this summer’s temperatures were, inside of two months – between June 27th and August 22nd – Jackson broke three daily records for warmest minimum temperature, and two daily records for the coldest maximum temperature. How bizarre is that?

Overall Mean Temp

The overall mean temperature this summer – in other words the average of the average high and low temps for this June-July-August – was 60.3 degrees. The long-term average mean summer temperature is 58.5 degrees. This summer was almost 2 degrees warmer than average and it was the warmest overall of the last 5 years.

Summers that had mean temperatures warmer than this one were: 2006 (61.7), 2004 (61.5), 2003 (63),2002 (60.8), 2000 (61.2) 1994(T), 1988,(62.2), 1961 (60.6), 1958 (T), 1936 (60.5), 1921( 61.4)

Summer Precipitation

While June was drier than normal, July and August were both well above average for precipitation, thanks again to the moisture provided by the monsoon. This summer’s total precipitation in the Town of Jackson for June through August was 4.90 inches. That’s 1.14 inches more than the long-term average for these three months of 3.76 inches.

Last summer Jackson had sub-par precipitation, with just 2.10 inches for June through August 2025. We more than doubled that number this summer, which really helped keep the fire danger from getting out of hand.

The driest summer on record was 1988 with a total  of only 0.80 inches of precipitation for June through August. That was the year of the big Yellowstone fires. The wettest summer on record came just 5 years later in 1993 with a total of 8.49 inches.

Year to date precipitation is also up, despite a dry January, March, and June. From January 1st through September 30th, 2026, Jackson has received 12.90 inches of precipitation, compared to the historic average of 12.13 inches for those 9 months.

Something we can say for certain, Jackson did not have a dry summer, nor is it having a dry year, so far.

Posted by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey

July is typically the warmest month of the year in Jackson, WY and it is also the driest month of the year on average. July of 2026 turned out to be warmer than the average, thanks to a persistent ridge of high pressure over the western United States, and wetter than normal, thanks to a strong monsoon flow from the Desert Southwest.

Beneath the core of that ridge of high pressure was a very dry and warm Desert Southwest, which day after day would build up heat, sometimes referred to as a heat dome in the media. That heat expanded northward through mid-July and never really relented, resulting in a string of three days that exceeded 90 degrees in town. Good enough to call it a “heatwave”.

During the latter half of July, the Desert Southwest Monsoon started creeping northward beneath that stationary ridge, bringing us some welcomed moisture with thunderstorm producing rains around Jackson Hole. But temperatures remained warmer than normal most days, both day and night.

What made it feel extra warm was the higher relative humidities that comes with the monsoon flow. You can tell when monsoon moisture has arrived when dewpoint temperatures in the valley are in the upper 40’s to around 50 degrees. That’s not the norm here in the summer, and it is what gave the air that “muggy” feeling.

Below is the summary of July’s weather. Read on for more details.

July High Temperatures

I think the biggest story of this summer, so far, was the abrupt transition in temperatures that we had at the very end of June going into July. The last several days of June 2026 were cold, with new snow in the mountains and high temperatures in town that were only in the low to mid 50’s.

On June 27th, 2026 the high temperature was 56 degrees in Jackson. That established a new record low maximum temperature for that date, breaking the old record of 57°F from 1965. June 28th, 2026, also had a high of 56 degrees, missing the record for that date by 2 degrees. And on June 29th, the high temperature in town was only 52 degrees, but a few degrees off the record for that date of 49 degrees from 2020.

Then, on July 12th, 2026, the high temperature was 92 degrees in Jackson, a 40-degree swing in high temperatures inside of two weeks!

Even though other un-official thermometers, like in your car or at the airport, may have shown higher temperatures, that 92-degree reading became the highest temperature recorded this July at the Jackson Climate Station, where our official weather records are taken. That 92-degree reading fell short of the record high for that date of 96 degrees in 1934.

Officially, the highest temperature ever recorded in the Town of Jackson is 101 degrees. That happened twice, on July 17th and July 20th, 1934. These are the only days in our weather history that Jackson has ever hit the 100-degree mark.

The average high temperature for the month of July this year in town was 83 degrees, or one degree warmer than the average for July of 82 degrees. Despite the consistent heat, not a single high temperature record was broken in town this July.

The warmest average high temperature in Jackson for the month of July, for all years with complete records, was 90 degrees in 2003.

Other High Temp Stats

Jackson averages 21 days of 80 degrees or warmer in July. This July had 27 days in the 80’s. The most 80 degree days in July were in 2000 and 2003, both had 31 days, in other words, every day was in the 80’s.

Jackson averages two days in July with temperatures of 90 degrees or warmer. This July had 4 days that officially were in the 90’s (on July 12th, 13th, 14th & 27th). But with monsoon moisture, and higher relative humidities, the air felt “muggy”, so many of those days that were in the 80’s felt much warmer.

The record for the number of 90-degree days in July, for all years that have complete records, was in 2003, with 17 days of 90 degrees or warmer in town.

One other interesting stat is that Jackson has not officially recorded a high temperature of 90 degrees in July since 2010.

July Low Temperatures

The average low temperature this July was 47 degrees, which is six degrees warmer than the long-term average of 41 degrees. This July was not the warmest July for overnight low temperatures, that record still belongs to 1945, which had an average low temperature for the month of 54 degrees.

Warmer overnight temperatures this July were also the product of the Desert Southwest Monsoon, and its higher relative humidity. Higher relative humidity means higher dewpoints, and that prevents overnight lows from cooling down as much as they usually would.

On July 21st, 2026, the overnight low temperature in town was 62 degrees. That not only broke the record for that date, but it also broke the record for the warmest overnight low temperature for the month of July in Jackson. The old record was 61 degrees on July 23rd, 1994.

Think about that for a minute, within the first three weeks of the summer season, Jackson broke temperature records for the coldest daytime high and then the warmest overnight low.

July Precipitation

This July the Jackson Climate Station recorded 1.41 inches of precipitation, or nearly a half inch more than the average in July of 0.92 inches. Precipitation was up this July because of a more active and earlier monsoon season, along with the thunderstorms that monsoon moisture brings. There were a couple of thndertorms that produces over 0.20 inches of rain in a day this July.

Back in early August of 2022, an active monsoon flow produced a record rainfall in town of 0.80 inches in 24 hours. Read about that here: Jackson Monsoon.

In case you were curious, the wettest July on record in town was in 1993, with 3.26 inches of rain. That came just five years after the driest July on record in 1988, when no rain fell, with zero precipitation recorded in town that month.

The precipitation we had this July almost made up for June’s deficit. June’s precipitation was below normal, with 0.94 inches compared to the long-term average of 1.58 inches.

Total precipitation for June and July 2026 was at 2.35 inches, compared to the long-term average for the two months of 2.50 inches.

Even though it was a warm July this year, it was far from dry. The valley floor is still looking mostly green, the open meadows in the mountains are a brilliant velvety green color, with abundant wildflowers in full bloom. Hopefully moisture will resume this August and keeps things green and our fire danger lower.

If you spend enough time outdoors in the summer, you are bound to run into a situation that exposes you to the dangers of lightning. The mountains are especially prone, as they are either in or close to the base of the clouds, which makes for a shorter and easier electrical connection to the ground.

A study done in Colorado several years ago showed that lightning strikes peaks and ridges seven times more often than adjacent valleys. So, the odds are not in your favor when recreating at altitude in the summer months.

Close Calls

When I worked as a Climbing Ranger in the Tetons back in the 1980’s and 90’s I had a number of close encounters with lightning.  One particular instance that remains vivid in my mind was on the north face of the Middle Teton, a pitch and a half below the summit. That’s when big cumulus clouds started to come into our view, off to east over the Gros Ventre mountains. By the time we topped out, we were in the thick of it; rain, hail, gusty winds, and lightning flashing all around us.

Needless to say, we made a hasty descent, rappelling down the Northwest side of the mountain, getting off the ridgetop as quickly as possible, as Thor (god of thunder) kept tossing hand-grenades at us. It was as nerve-wracking as being in a war zone during a shelling.

Even if you know a thing or two about the weather, spend enough time out in the mountains and at some point you’ll end up playing dodgeball with thunderstorms, on a day hike, a backpacking trip, or climbing a peak.

Another bit of advice, even a small probability of thunderstorms the forecast should be heeded. A 10 or 20 percent chance might quickly turn into a 100 percent chance where you are.

The Dangers of Lightning

It is truly a scary experience being caught outdoors in a thunderstorm. Even scarier when you are in the mountains, up in the base of the clouds. Statistically though, your chances of being killed by lightning are relatively low. On average, 30 to 40 people a year in the United States are killed by lightning, but 10 times that amount suffer injuries from lightning.

Part of the reason for the greater number of injuries is because a lightning bolt has about the same explosive power as a hand-grenade. The kill radius is about 25 feet, and the casualty or injury radius is about 50 feet.

The electrical energy and intense heat from lightning can hurt you in several different ways:

1) Direct Strike: This rarely happens, however, if you were unlucky enough to take a direct hit, it would be game-over, right then and there.

2) Conduction: Electrical energy travels through all metal objects, as well as graphite, carbon-fiber and water.

3) Side-flash: The heat & electrical current emanating outward through the air from a nearby lightning strike can cause cardiac arrest, concussive injuries, severe burns and/or nerve damage.

4) Ground Current: When lightning strikes the ground, the electrical current is carried outward, radially, in all directions along the ground surface. If that current reaches you, it can travel up through your body. Cardiac arrest, burns and nerve damage are all possible from ground current.

Conduction and direct hits, combined, account for only about 20-percent of all lightning casualties. Side-flash accounts for around 30-percent. Ground current alone accounts for around half, or 50-percent, of all lightning injuries and fatalities.

Where to Hide

“When thunder roars, go indoors” is the mantra from the National Weather Service, which is good advice if you are in town. Out in the mountains, on the trail or on the lake or the river, we are often miles away from a totally safe shelter. So, here are a few tips on how to avoid becoming a lightning casualty when far from the safety of a building or a car.

1) Get off ridgetops. Avoid open meadows. Get off the lake or out of the water.

2) Never run for cover under a lone tree. A grove of trees of similar height is a better option. Be cognizant to not stand on top of tree roots.

3) Avoid direct contact with any metal or graphite objects that will conduct electrical current. Climbing gear, fishing poles, your bike, hiking poles, etc. Stash that stuff and get away from it while you wait it out.

4) If you are stuck in an exposed location, stay put and protect yourself from ground currents by standing still with both feet together. This can prevent the ground current from traveling up through your body.

Squatting down to get lower will provide little additional  protection, and it is a difficult position to hold for very long. Siting “Indian-style” is OK too, if inside a tent for instance. Sitting on an insulated pad will help keep you dry, but does not protect you insulate you from ground current. About all it will do is keep your butt from getting bruised if the ground current lifts you off the pad

5) If in a group, never huddle together. Spread out, 25 to 50 feet apart. That way when the grenade drops, fewer people in your party will be affected by the blast.

6) If all else fails, run like hell to get to a safer location, and hope whatever Thor is throwing down that day misses you by a wide margin.

Post by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey.

Portions of this post appeared in the Jackson Hole News & Guide on July 8, 2026.