July is typically the warmest month of the year in Jackson, WY and it is also the driest month of the year on average. July of 2026 turned out to be warmer than the average, thanks to a persistent ridge of high pressure over the western United States, and wetter than normal, thanks to a strong monsoon flow from the Desert Southwest.

Beneath the core of that ridge of high pressure was a very dry and warm Desert Southwest, which day after day would build up heat, sometimes referred to as a heat dome in the media. That heat expanded northward through mid-July and never really relented, resulting in a string of three days that exceeded 90 degrees in town. Good enough to call it a “heatwave”.

During the latter half of July, the Desert Southwest Monsoon started creeping northward beneath that stationary ridge, bringing us some welcomed moisture with thunderstorm producing rains around Jackson Hole. But temperatures remained warmer than normal most days, both day and night.

What made it feel extra warm was the higher relative humidities that comes with the monsoon flow. You can tell when monsoon moisture has arrived when dewpoint temperatures in the valley are in the upper 40’s to around 50 degrees. That’s not the norm here in the summer, and it is what gave the air that “muggy” feeling.

Below is the summary of July’s weather. Read on for more details.

July High Temperatures

I think the biggest story of this summer, so far, was the abrupt transition in temperatures that we had at the very end of June going into July. The last several days of June 2026 were cold, with new snow in the mountains and high temperatures in town that were only in the low to mid 50’s.

On June 27th, 2026 the high temperature was 56 degrees in Jackson. That established a new record low maximum temperature for that date, breaking the old record of 57°F from 1965. June 28th, 2026, also had a high of 56 degrees, missing the record for that date by 2 degrees. And on June 29th, the high temperature in town was only 52 degrees, but a few degrees off the record for that date of 49 degrees from 2020.

Then, on July 12th, 2026, the high temperature was 92 degrees in Jackson, a 40-degree swing in high temperatures inside of two weeks!

Even though other un-official thermometers, like in your car or at the airport, may have shown higher temperatures, that 92-degree reading became the highest temperature recorded this July at the Jackson Climate Station, where our official weather records are taken. That 92-degree reading fell short of the record high for that date of 96 degrees in 1934.

Officially, the highest temperature ever recorded in the Town of Jackson is 101 degrees. That happened twice, on July 17th and July 20th, 1934. These are the only days in our weather history that Jackson has ever hit the 100-degree mark.

The average high temperature for the month of July this year in town was 83 degrees, or one degree warmer than the average for July of 82 degrees. Despite the consistent heat, not a single high temperature record was broken in town this July.

The warmest average high temperature in Jackson for the month of July, for all years with complete records, was 90 degrees in 2003.

Other High Temp Stats

Jackson averages 21 days of 80 degrees or warmer in July. This July had 27 days in the 80’s. The most 80 degree days in July were in 2000 and 2003, both had 31 days, in other words, every day was in the 80’s.

Jackson averages two days in July with temperatures of 90 degrees or warmer. This July had 4 days that officially were in the 90’s (on July 12th, 13th, 14th & 27th). But with monsoon moisture, and higher relative humidities, the air felt “muggy”, so many of those days that were in the 80’s felt much warmer.

The record for the number of 90-degree days in July, for all years that have complete records, was in 2003, with 17 days of 90 degrees or warmer in town.

One other interesting stat is that Jackson has not officially recorded a high temperature of 90 degrees in July since 2010.

July Low Temperatures

The average low temperature this July was 47 degrees, which is six degrees warmer than the long-term average of 41 degrees. This July was not the warmest July for overnight low temperatures, that record still belongs to 1945, which had an average low temperature for the month of 54 degrees.

Warmer overnight temperatures this July were also the product of the Desert Southwest Monsoon, and its higher relative humidity. Higher relative humidity means higher dewpoints, and that prevents overnight lows from cooling down as much as they usually would.

On July 21st, 2026, the overnight low temperature in town was 62 degrees. That not only broke the record for that date, but it also broke the record for the warmest overnight low temperature for the month of July in Jackson. The old record was 61 degrees on July 23rd, 1994.

Think about that for a minute, within the first three weeks of the summer season, Jackson broke temperature records for the coldest daytime high and then the warmest overnight low.

July Precipitation

This July the Jackson Climate Station recorded 1.41 inches of precipitation, or nearly a half inch more than the average in July of 0.92 inches. Precipitation was up this July because of a more active and earlier monsoon season, along with the thunderstorms that monsoon moisture brings. There were a couple of thndertorms that produces over 0.20 inches of rain in a day this July.

Back in early August of 2022, an active monsoon flow produced a record rainfall in town of 0.80 inches in 24 hours. Read about that here: Jackson Monsoon.

In case you were curious, the wettest July on record in town was in 1993, with 3.26 inches of rain. That came just five years after the driest July on record in 1988, when no rain fell, with zero precipitation recorded in town that month.

The precipitation we had this July almost made up for June’s deficit. June’s precipitation was below normal, with 0.94 inches compared to the long-term average of 1.58 inches.

Total precipitation for June and July 2026 was at 2.35 inches, compared to the long-term average for the two months of 2.50 inches.

Even though it was a warm July this year, it was far from dry. The valley floor is still looking mostly green, the open meadows in the mountains are a brilliant velvety green color, with abundant wildflowers in full bloom. Hopefully moisture will resume this August and keeps things green and our fire danger lower.

If you spend enough time outdoors in the summer, you are bound to run into a situation that exposes you to the dangers of lightning. The mountains are especially prone, as they are either in or close to the base of the clouds, which makes for a shorter and easier electrical connection to the ground.

A study done in Colorado several years ago showed that lightning strikes peaks and ridges seven times more often than adjacent valleys. So, the odds are not in your favor when recreating at altitude in the summer months.

Close Calls

When I worked as a Climbing Ranger in the Tetons back in the 1980’s and 90’s I had a number of close encounters with lightning.  One particular instance that remains vivid in my mind was on the north face of the Middle Teton, a pitch and a half below the summit. That’s when big cumulus clouds started to come into our view, off to east over the Gros Ventre mountains. By the time we topped out, we were in the thick of it; rain, hail, gusty winds, and lightning flashing all around us.

Needless to say, we made a hasty descent, rappelling down the Northwest side of the mountain, getting off the ridgetop as quickly as possible, as Thor (god of thunder) kept tossing hand-grenades at us. It was as nerve-wracking as being in a war zone during a shelling.

Even if you know a thing or two about the weather, spend enough time out in the mountains and at some point you’ll end up playing dodgeball with thunderstorms, on a day hike, a backpacking trip, or climbing a peak.

Another bit of advice, even a small probability of thunderstorms the forecast should be heeded. A 10 or 20 percent chance might quickly turn into a 100 percent chance where you are.

The Dangers of Lightning

It is truly a scary experience being caught outdoors in a thunderstorm. Even scarier when you are in the mountains, up in the base of the clouds. Statistically though, your chances of being killed by lightning are relatively low. On average, 30 to 40 people a year in the United States are killed by lightning, but 10 times that amount suffer injuries from lightning.

Part of the reason for the greater number of injuries is because a lightning bolt has about the same explosive power as a hand-grenade. The kill radius is about 25 feet, and the casualty or injury radius is about 50 feet.

The electrical energy and intense heat from lightning can hurt you in several different ways:

1) Direct Strike: This rarely happens, however, if you were unlucky enough to take a direct hit, it would be game-over, right then and there.

2) Conduction: Electrical energy travels through all metal objects, as well as graphite, carbon-fiber and water.

3) Side-flash: The heat & electrical current emanating outward through the air from a nearby lightning strike can cause cardiac arrest, concussive injuries, severe burns and/or nerve damage.

4) Ground Current: When lightning strikes the ground, the electrical current is carried outward, radially, in all directions along the ground surface. If that current reaches you, it can travel up through your body. Cardiac arrest, burns and nerve damage are all possible from ground current.

Conduction and direct hits, combined, account for only about 20-percent of all lightning casualties. Side-flash accounts for around 30-percent. Ground current alone accounts for around half, or 50-percent, of all lightning injuries and fatalities.

Where to Hide

“When thunder roars, go indoors” is the mantra from the National Weather Service, which is good advice if you are in town. Out in the mountains, on the trail or on the lake or the river, we are often miles away from a totally safe shelter. So, here are a few tips on how to avoid becoming a lightning casualty when far from the safety of a building or a car.

1) Get off ridgetops. Avoid open meadows. Get off the lake or out of the water.

2) Never run for cover under a lone tree. A grove of trees of similar height is a better option. Be cognizant to not stand on top of tree roots.

3) Avoid direct contact with any metal or graphite objects that will conduct electrical current. Climbing gear, fishing poles, your bike, hiking poles, etc. Stash that stuff and get away from it while you wait it out.

4) If you are stuck in an exposed location, stay put and protect yourself from ground currents by standing still with both feet together. This can prevent the ground current from traveling up through your body.

Squatting down to get lower will provide little additional  protection, and it is a difficult position to hold for very long. Siting “Indian-style” is OK too, if inside a tent for instance. Sitting on an insulated pad will help keep you dry, but does not protect you insulate you from ground current. About all it will do is keep your butt from getting bruised if the ground current lifts you off the pad

5) If in a group, never huddle together. Spread out, 25 to 50 feet apart. That way when the grenade drops, fewer people in your party will be affected by the blast.

6) If all else fails, run like hell to get to a safer location, and hope whatever Thor is throwing down that day misses you by a wide margin.

Post by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey.

Portions of this post appeared in the Jackson Hole News & Guide on July 8, 2026.

All we have heard so far this spring is that we are in for a hot, dry, summer with a busy wildfire season expected over the next few months. As I look back at the last 20 years or so, that has pretty much been the outlook almost every summer here in Northwest Wyoming.

Will this summer somehow be uniquely different? Let’s look at the current outlooks for June, July, and August 2026 and break down what they might portend. Then look back at a similar historical situation to see how that panned out.

NOAA’s Outlook

The most recent Three-Month Outlook issued by NOAA on May 21, 2026, for this June, July, and August, shows Northwestern Wyoming is in the “Likely” category for above normal temperatures. The probability of that happening is listed at 50 to 60 percent. (Refer to the Outlook graphics included here).

Northwest Wyoming falls under the “Equal Chances” category for precipitation this summer. That does not mean we’ll have a “normal” amount of precipitation, as some people may perceive it. What it means is, there are equal chances of having above normal precipitation, below normal precipitation, or average precipitation. The probability of each one of those occurring is 33.3 percent.

To make it into either the above normal or below normal category, the probability of occurrence needs to be more than 33 percent. Southwest, Central, and Southeast Wyoming are leaning towards the above normal category for precipitation, with a 33 to 40 percent chance of precipitation being above normal this summer.

You could interpret this summer’s outlook from NOAA to mean that the weather, overall, for the next three months here in Jackson Hole will be warmer than normal. How much precipitation we might get is still a coin toss. But you’ll need a three-sided coin to decide the precipitation outlook.

How to read the Outlooks

Making these Three-Month Seasonal Outlooks involves a rather complicated methodology that NOAA uses to arrive at these probabilities. Here is the explanation from the Climate Prediction Center’s website:

“The contours on the map show the total probability (%) of three categories, above, indicated by the letter “A”, below, indicated by the letter “B”, and the middle category, indicated by the letter “N”. At any point on the map, the sum of the probabilities of these three categories is 100%.

For any particular location, and season, these three categories are defined from the 30 observations from 1981-2010. The coldest or driest 1/3 (10 years) define the B category, the warmest or wettest 1/3 (10 years) define the A category, and the remaining 10 years in between define the middle (N) category.

When the forecasters decide that one of the extreme categories, say above (A), is the most likely one, they assign probabilities which exceed 33.33% to that category, and label the map with an “A” in the center of the region of enhanced probabilities. To make it possible to display three categories on one map, we assume that, when either A, or B is the most likely category, the probability of the middle category remains at 33.33% for most situations. This means, for example, that when the probability of A (B) is 40%, the probability of N is 33.33%, and the probability of B (A) is 100% minus 40%+33.33%=26.67%.

When probability values of the favored category reaches 70%, or higher, the probability of the opposite category is fixed at 3.3%, and the probability of the middle category is adjusted to values (less than 33.33%) which cause the sum of the three probabilities to equal 100%.

When the middle category (N) is higher than 33.33%, the probabilities of the A and B categories decline by (equal) amounts required for the sum of the A, N, B probabilities to equal 100%.

In regions where the forecasters have no forecast tools which favor the chance of either A, or B, the chance of these two categories is defined to be 33.33% each, and the region is labeled “EC”, which stands for equal chances.

Shading is used to indicate different levels of probability above 33.33%.”

Compared with the Summer 2022

The last time we were in a similar situation most recently, with a low snowfall winter preceding the coming summer, was in 2022. The winter of 2021-22 had below normal snowfall in the mountains for December through March with only 241 inches, which was even less than this past winter’s 252 inches.

Town had a total of 54 inches of snowfall for December through March 2021-22, compared to 45 inches this past winter. However, the Winter of 2021-22 only had a total of 4.01 inches of precipitation with that snow, compared to 7.11 inches of precipitation in town from December through March 2025-26. The average winter precipitation in the Town of Jackson is 5.48 inches.

Add to that above average precipitation for April through May, another 3.48 inches combined, bringing the total precipitation for October 2025 through May 2026 up to 10.51 inches. That is 2 inches above the long term average of 8.52 inches for those 8 months. Maybe that is why the valley looks so green right now.

April and May of 2022 also had above average precipitation here in Jackson, leading into the summer months. So, what was the outlook for that coming Summer of 2022? You guessed it, “warmer and drier than normal” for Northwest Wyoming.

Here are the outlook maps from NOAA, from May 19th, 2022:

The NOAA Outlook for Summer 2022 had Northwestern Wyoming solidly in the “likely” to be above normal category for temperatures, in the 50 to 60 percent range. And for precipitation, it was forecast as “likely” to be below normal, in the 40 to 50 percent chance range.

What really happened in the Summer of 2022? Monthly average high temperatures were colder than normal for the summer. Average low temperatures were warmer than normal. Overall, the mean temperature for the summer was right at average. Not above average, nor below.

June 2022’s precipitation was near normal, July was way below normal, but August 2022 was well above normal due to a more active monsoon, creating the second wettest August in the Town of Jackson’s weather history. Jackson ended up with 5.26 inches of rain in June, July and August of 2022. That is 140 percent of the normal summer precipitation of 3.77 inches.

Sorry to say, but that summer’s outlook was a bust. That’s only one example, and I’m not saying this summer’s outlook will be a bust also. We’ll just have to wait until September to judge that.

To “Summerize”

How this summer plays out will depend on the weather patterns that develop, especially how strong the Desert Southwest Monsoon becomes later in July and August. And whether that monsoon moisture surges this far north often enough to bring significant precipitation, like it did in 2022.

With the monsoon, as with more typical summer thunderstorms, comes lightning. That will also be a factor in what kind of wildfire season we have. But keep in mind, only about 20 percent of wildfires in the United States are caused by lightning, the other 80 percent are human caused.

We can do our part in reducing the threat of wildfires by making sure your campfires this summer are dead out before you leave them unattended. Maybe even chose to forego the campfire in particularly dry places or at least be cognizant of sparks getting away from you when it is too windy.

No matter what the weather, get out and enjoy this summer, because they are typically pretty darn short here in Wyoming.

Jim is the chief meteorologist at mountainweather.com and has forecast the weather in Jackson Hole for the last 35 years.

Portions of this post appeared in the June 3rd, 2026 issue of the Jackson Hole News & Guide

Flip-flopping spring weather is perfectly normal. The weather in March this year was more like April. And April’s weather was like the March we should have had.

From warm and sunny days into the 70’s, to cold and snowy days with highs in the 30’s, April 2026 had something for every weather connoisseur’s tastes. In this week’s column I’ll look back at the ups and downs of the weather from this past month. Then I’ll  provide some insight into what the month of May might be like, weather-wise here in Jackson.

Temperature Roller Coaster

On the 16th of April 2026 Jackson came within one degree of the record for coldest maximum temperature on that date. It only reached a high of 34 degrees that day in town, the record for April 16th is 33 degrees from 1960.

Five days later, on April 21st, 2026, the high temperature was 72 degrees in town. That’s a 38-degree swing in temperature, in less than a week’s time. The next day, on April 22nd, the high temperature in town was 45 degrees, a 27-degree drop in one day.

On April 24th, 2026, the high temperature in Jackson was only 35 degrees, tying the record for that date, also from 1960. The next morning, April 25th, the low temperature in town was 12 degrees, which tied the record low temperature for that date from 1945.

The average high temperature this April was 50.8 degrees, more than a degree cooler than the long-term average of 52 degrees. The average low temperature for April 2026 ended up at 25.8 degrees, a little more than a degree warmer than the long-term average in April of 24 degrees.

Even with all that temperature fluctuation, the mean temperature for April 2026 was 38.3 degrees, very close to the long-term average of 38 degrees.

Rain and Snow

April 2026 almost made up for the deficit Jackson had for precipitation and snowfall in the month of March. March 2026 only had 0.32 inches of precipitation, whereas this April recorded 1.68 inches in town. That’s above the average precipitation for April of 1.22 inches.

March 2026 only recorded 2.5 inches of snowfall in town, but April 2026 recorded 6.5 inches. The average snowfall for April in Jackson is 4 inches.

Mountain Snow

Data from the Rendezvous Bowl weather station, at around the 9,600-foot elevation at the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, only recorded 32 inches of snowfall in March of 2026. An average March would see 67 inches of snowfall.

April 2026 recorded 68 inches of snowfall for the month, an inch more that an average March. This April had nearly twice the average snowfall for April on the mountain, which is 35 inches at that location and elevation.

Also of note, the settled snow depth at Rendezvous Bowl on April 1st, 2026, was at 76 inches. At the end of the month, on April 30th, it was up to 88 inches. Which means there is still plenty of snow yet to melt at the higher elevations.

This is the snow, and the water contained in it, that the SnoTel network does not account for. Most of the SnoTel instruments for the Snake River Drainage are located below the 8,200-ft. elevation. The Two Ocean site is the only higher elevation SnoTel site, at 9,240-ft. and it was at 108% of the median Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) on May 1st, 2026. Blind Bull at 8,880-ft. was 101% of normal.

A note on mountain temperatures, they also had big swings. On the morning of  April 17th, 2026, the temperature at the top of the tram at around the 10,000-ft. elevation was 4°F. Four days later , on April 21st, 2026, the high temperature was 49°F.

May Weather to Come

I think I figured out why they call it the Month of May. It may be warm and sunny, or it may be cold and wet. That is May in a nutshell. To give you an idea of what it might be like, I’ll outline the historical averages, or what is considered “normal” for May, and what the extremes have been historically here in Jackson in Mays past.

May Temps

The long-term average high temperature in Jackson for the month of May is 63 degrees. That’s eleven degrees warmer than April’s average high. The average low temperature in May is 31 degrees, or 7 degrees warmer than April’s average low.

The record high temperature in Jackson in May is 90 degrees, set on May 29th, 2003. The record low temperature in town is 5 degrees, set on May 2nd, 1988.

Those are the extremes of temperature experienced here in Jackson in May.

May Precip

According to the long-term historical weather records, May is still considered the wettest month of the year in Jackson. Averaging 1.83 inches of precipitation. The record for precipitation in May is 6.02 inches, from 1980, which also qualified as the seconded wettest month in Jackson’s weather history, behind September 1924, which had 6.53 inches of precipitation. The driest May on record was in 1969, with only 0.13 inches of precip.

Jackson only averages about one inch of snowfall in May. But in May of 1942, Jackson received 14.5 inches of snow.

Don’t count on this May being close to average, count on it falling somewhere in-between the extremes.

The 30-day outlook for temperatures and precipitation for the month of May are shown below, for the USA, from NOAA.

Something I have mentioned many times over the last 30-plus years writing this column, “it is the extremes of weather that make our averages”. So, if you expect every month, every season, or every year to be close to normal here in western Wyoming, then you have been deceived. It is more likely our weather will be well outside of what we consider to be “normal”.

As Mark Twain once said, “Climate is what we expect, and weather is what we get”.

Jim is the chief meteorologist at mountainweather.com and has forecast the weather in Jackson Hole for the last 35 years.

Portions of this post appeared in the Jackson Hole News & Guide on May 6th, 2026.