Every year in early autumn I will present some sort of prognostication of what the coming winter will be like. For skiers, snowboarders and snow-machiners, in general, all they really care about is that it will be a “SNOWY'” winter, providing bountiful powder to shred.

That’s the only reason to even look at a long-range forecast, in my opinion. To either give hope or spread despair as we wait in anticipation of the coming winter. Here is what i found, take it for what it is and don’t hold me personally responsible if it does or doesn’t come true!

What NOAA Says

The latest forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, made Sept. 17th, 2020, are showing that temperatures in Northwest Wyoming have an equal chance of being above normal, below normal or normal. No help there, as far as determining if it will be colder or warmer than the averages around Jackson Hole.

It might be worth noting that last year the same winter outlook issued by NOAA gave us a 50 to 55-percent chance of having warmer than normal temperatures. It turned out to be cooler than normal last winter.

For Northern Washington State & northern Montana, it shows colder than normal. For the Sierra Nevada to Utah & Colorado, warmer than normal temps are anticipated.

Their prediction for precipitation this winter shows a better than even chance of above normal. Jackson Hole is somewhere between a 55 and 60-percent probability of seeing more precipitation than normal. Which we could interpret to mean, snowier than normal this winter.

Last year, NOAA also showed equal chances of above, below or normal precipitation last winter. We had above normal snowfall, both in town and in the mountains during the Winter of 2019-20.

Montana looks to have the highest probability of  SNOWIER than normal winter in 2020-21. The Pacific Northwest, is riding the 50 to 55-percent probability line for above normal precip. For the rest of the Southwest, it looks drier. Utah and Colorado are on the line of Equal Chances or land somewhere near the 50 to 55-percent probability of seeing below normal precip this winter.

What the Farmers Say

Last year, both of the almanacs touted a colder and snowier winter for our region. Check them off as being correct in their predictions for last winter.

This year, the Farmers’ Almanac is painting a picture of “Cold, Above Normal Snowfall”, across all of Wyoming for Winter 2020-21. Read no further if that is what you were waiting to hear.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac is a little more ambiguous in their outlook for western Wyoming, displaying, “Snow Pelting, Then Melting” on their outlook map. Could that portend warmer temperatures at times? Perhaps. Nevertheless, it’s not quite as assuring as their forecast from last winter, which read, “Low Temps, Deep Powder”, which pretty much was a dream come true for us here in Jackson Hole.

The bottom-line is that none of this winter’s prognostications are totally discouraging for Jackson Hole or for most of the mountain regions of the Western U.S.

All of them are a far cry from saying, “warm and dry”, except for maybe teh Southwestern part of the country. So, youbetter prep those boards, snow’s coming.

La Nina on Track

Since August of 2020, La Nina conditions developed in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Nina is the cool phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO.

Forecasters at NOAA who pay attention to these sorts of things are predicting a 75-percent chance that La Nina conditions will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Typically, and I use that word with a dash of caution, La Nina winters are drier and warmer over California and the Southwestern United States. La Nina Winters are typically cooler and snowier for the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.

Based on that prediction, along with what I can glean from all the other outlooks, I’d conclude that we are in for another pretty good winter season, especially around Jackson Hole. As I like to say though, a bad winter in Jackson is usually better than a good winter most other places. But I’m a little biased that way!

Post by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey

Cooler temps and some rain have helped squelch some of the forest fires that have been raging this summer across the Western United States. As we head into fall, conditions should improve. However,  fire-weather season is never really over until the snow falls!

This post will provide some resources for you to track the location and status of current wildfires. Other fire-weather forecast resources are also listed , including predictions of fire intensity & air quality/particulate matter, which should be useful for planning trips and outdoor activities, to avoid the worst of it.

Note, there are two locations on mountainweather.com that have links to forest fire info, The NWS Forecast Info page, under USA Watches & Warnings. Also, under the Jackson Hole drop-down menu, click on the Local Reports & Info page, for local and regional fire information.

Large Fires Map

Click map below for info and stats on all large blazes currently being managed.

Active Fires Map

Similar to the map above, the InciWeb map is a little simpler and more user friendly.

NASA Daily Hi Res Satellite

Does a good job of displaying the smoke across the whole planet, as well as clouds.
Zoom in for a closer view. NASA Worldview.

Fire Weather Outlooks

The NWS Fire Weather Page has latest warning areas, a drought monitor & outlook, Hazard outlooks across the country for the next week, and Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks for the next two months.

Fire Intensity & Air Quality Forecasts

On the website Windy.com there are two useful maps related to fire. The first is the Fire Intensity Map which is derived from the thermal radiation measured from satellites, coming from actively burning vegetation. These are the current “hot spots”.

The other useful map is the PM 2.5 particulate matter forecast. PM 2.5  refers to the size of the pollutant in micrometers. This is fine particulate matter, like wood smoke, which can be harmful to your lungs.
FYI: N95 masks are supposed to protect us from airborne particles down to this size.

There are plenty of other maps and info available about fire-weather. This should be a good starter kit for cruising some of what is available. Hopefully, we are now past the peak of this very busy summer of fire.

Post by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey

As high-pressure was building a semi-permanent home over the Western United States during the first couple of weeks in August, temperatures were heating up, as it often does this time of year. Very warm temperatures and little to no precipitation resulted in a rapidly developing and dangerous fire season across the Western United States.

Around Jackson Hole, WY vegetation dried out rapidly during the first few weeks of August, elevating the fire danger to “Very High”, where it has remained since late August.

Only a few lightning strikes from isolated thunderstorms were noted the first half of this month. Nevertheless, it only takes one lightning strike. It only takes one improperly extinguished campfire. It only takes one dumbass with fireworks. Or, as we saw last year on September 1st on Saddle Butte, one errant Mylar balloon hanging up in a power-line, to set things ablaze.

Natural vs. Human Caused

According to the U.S. Forest Service, and a Smokey the Bear PSA, 9 out of 10 forest fires are caused by humans. Of the 10 fires that Teton Interagency Fire in western Wyoming has reported this summer so far, 7 of those were human caused, 3 were lightning caused.

As of the end of August there were 179 abandoned or unattended campfires found in Grand Teton National Park and on the Bridger-Teton National Forest. That is just unacceptable.

It is true that many of largest conflagrations throughout the West in recent years were not ignited by Mother Nature. However, the weather is a major contributor to fire potential.

The poorly maintained power-lines that sparked what was ironically called the “Camp Fire” in northern California in 2018, destroying the town Paradise, is an example of a human caused wildfire. The Roosevelt Fire that destroyed homes in Hoback Ranches in September 2018 was also a human caused conflagration.

Lightning is rare in Northern California, but some of the larger fires this year were started by lightning strikes, then blown to enormous proportions by strong winds.

Wind Hastens Fire

Hot and dry weather alone is not all that is required for big fires to erupt. That certainly helps, but the common denominator for large fire growth is wind. Fire smoldering in the duff or in an old fire ring, can be instantly brought back to life with a little wind. Continuous strong winds can fan and spread the flames in a very fast and efficient manner.

In the almost 40 years that I have lived in Jackson Hole, I have witnessed some big fires, all of which got huge because of the wind driving their growth. It is an impressive force of nature to observe a wildfire once the wind gets behind them.

The first big fire I witnessed, up close and personal while working as a Ranger in Grand Teton National Park, was the Beaver Creek Fire near Taggart Lake in August of 1985. That was started by lightning and was supposedly extinguished. Supposedly. High winds brought that one back to life and it made a run to the north, destroying some cabins at the Climbers Ranch.

Everyone has heard tale of the big Yellowstone fires during the Summer of 1988 encompassing over 800,000 acres or one-third of Yellowstone Park. These fires were primarily a series of lightning caused fires that began in July and were not suppressed, initially. Wind began growing some of these fires to unmanageable proportions through August and into September. They ran unabated until it finally snowed on September 11th.

The Antelope Flats Fire that burned down the historic Pfeiffer Homestead in 1994 and the Alder Fire in 1999 that nearly torched Jenny Lake Lodge were other notable fires that slipped out of our control, due to wind.

More recently, around the southern end of Jackson Hole, many of us can recall the Green Knoll fire in 2001 and the Horsethief Fire in 2012. the Horsethief Fire almost pushed its way over Snow King Mountain. A few degrees difference in wind direction and that fire could have easily rolled into downtown Jackson. Both of these fires were human caused.

Be Careful Out There

There are many more fire stories to be told, but I think you get the idea. From now until it snows, wildfires will likely be a threat.

As Smokey the Bear likes to say, “Only YOU can prevent forest fires”. That’s true, we can help prevent human caused fires by heeding the fire restrictions and foregoing the campfire experience, for instance.

Unfortunately, we can’t prevent lightning caused fires from starting and we can’t prevent the wind from blowing, and that is when fires can quickly get out of our control.

Jim is the chief meteorologist at mountainweather.com and has forecast the weather in Jackson Hole and the Teton Range for the last 29 years.

NOTE: This article originally appeared in the Jackson Hole News & Guide’s Mountain Weather column on August 26th, 2020.