Summer’s unofficial start is always over Memorial Day, and I believe most folks are expecting to have nicer weather from now until at least Labor Day.

There is a general expectation that summer weather will be “warm and sunny”, however, there have been some summers that weren’t, like 1993, which was cold and wet in Jackson Hole, for all three months. Or, other’s that were too warm and too dry, like 1988, the year of the big Yellowstone fires, as well as, more recent summers in the early 2000’s.

I’d venture to say that an “ideal” summer would be defined as: “warm and sunny most of the time”, but not too hot, and not too cool, and not too wet, but not so dry that we have big forest fires. A few thunderstorms are OK, but not on the days I am planning an outing, and never on the weekends, please.

With that,  I will take a look at what the long-range outlook is for the Summer of 2017. If for no other reason, to give us a baseline of what we should expect of the weather, in general, over the next few months.

Temperature Forecast

The long-range outlook for temperatures across the United States for June, July and August of 2017, from the Climate Prediction Center, a branch of the National Weather Service, shows that we have “equal chances” of being either above or below normal.

Can we just interpret that to mean that temperatures will be close to average this summer? You can, if that makes you feel better. But what that really means is that the forecasters have no clear indications, one way or the other, that it is going to be warmer or cooler than normal, around here. Those “equal chances” in the temperature category hold true for all of the Northern and Central Rockies, as well as, the Northern and Central Plains States.

Where it is supposed to be warmer than normal, is over the far Western and Southwestern United States, as well as, the entire eastern United States. So, in a relative sense, the Rockies are looking pretty cool for this summer.

Precipitation Forecast

When looking at what parts of the country are supposed to be wetter than normal this summer, that whole picture is pretty much inverted from the pattern shown for temperatures.

The Rockies and Plains States, from north to south, are forecasted to be wetter than normal. As a matter of fact, the State of Wyoming is painted underneath the very highest probabilities of having wetter than normal conditions this summer.

Meanwhile, the far Western and all of the Eastern United States are under “equal chances” of being either wetter or drier than normal. Again, that means forecasters are flipping a coin about wetter or drier for those geographic areas. I suppose “equal chances” sounds more professional than, “I don’t have a clue”.

Summer Summary

What should we make of all that, and how can we summarize what kind of summer to expect? Here’s my take: when we have a wetter than normal summer, we usually have cooler than normal temperatures. Therefore, expect more frequent storms, fewer episodes of long-lasting high pressure, and record breaking high temperatures will be less likely, as well. That should hold true throughout most of the Rockies.

For other parts of the country that are showing a forecast of above normal temperatures, I would expect it to be drier than normal there, as heat tends to follow drought.

Keep in mind that these three-month seasonal outlooks are generalizations, it is what the overall temperature and precipitation should come out looking like when it is all said and done the end of August, when compared to the long-term averages.

To gauge how well these outlooks have performed, let’s look back at October 2016 and the outlook for the Winter of 2016-17. For temperatures, the Climate Prediction Center forecasts gave us “equal chances” of above or below normal. I’d say that was spot-on, as the first half of winter was colder than normal and the last half was warmer. For precipitation, they gave us a better than a 50-percent chance of being above normal. In hindsight, that could have been 100-percent.

If this summer’s outlook turns out to be just as good as this past winter’s, then expect some ups and downs with temperatures, and greener grass in the valley.

Jim is the chief meteorologist at mountainweather.com and has been forecasting weather in Jackson Hole and the Teton Range for more than 25 years.

The winter season is technically defined as: December, January and February. This is what is known as the “meteorological winter”. According to the “calendar season”, winter doesn’t officially end until the Spring Equinox, which will be this coming Monday, March 20th.

In Jackson Hole, winter isn’t over until the “ski season” ends in April. And I might add, for some Jackson Hole locals, the ski season doesn’t end until all the snow melts.

Since the meteorological winter is now behind us, and spring (March, April, May) has technically begun, I thought I would summarize this “winter’s” weather in this week’s column. In a subsequent column I will add March to the mix and give you the grand totals, for the entire “ski season”.

First, I will summarize and compare snowfall and water in the mountains. Then I will summarize snow, water, and temperatures for this winter in the Town of Jackson.

Mountain Snow

At the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, at the 9,580-ft. elevation in Rendezvous Bowl, the total snowfall received at that location from December 1st, 2016 through February 28th, 2017 was 390 inches. That is over 32 feet of snowfall over those three months alone.

The Rendezvous Bowl weather site has the longest continuous record of snowfall on the upper mountain, and the record snowfall at that site for December through February is 417 inches, or almost 35-feet of snowfall. That was during the winter of 1996-97. The winter of 2016-17 is now the second snowiest “winter season” on the mountain, in their 40-some years of weather records. All other winters are a distant third.

At the end of the meteorological winter this year, the settled snow depth in Rendezvous Bowl was at 151 inches. Making this the deepest winter ever.

Note: In early March, Rendezvous Bowl’s snow depth reached 158 inches. That beat the old deepest snow depth record of 157 inches that occurred in late March of 1997.

Water content of the snowpack at the end of February 2017, measured at the Phillips Bench Snotel site at the 8,200 foot elevation near Teton Pass, was at 157-percent of the median. The snowpack there contained 31 inches of water, compared to an average for the end of February of 21.8 inches, or almost 10 inches more than normal.

By the way, at the end of February 1997 Phillips Bench had 37 inches of Snow Water Equivalent. Six inches more than February 2017.

Town of Jackson

Snow and water numbers in the mountains might be mind-blowing, but what happened in town this winter was nothing short of being one of the wildest weather winters on record. Snow, rain, cold, warm…..we had it all. And we had it over, and over, and over again.

Snowfall-wise: This winter stacks up with some of the snowiest. Rain events in February are the only thing that kept us from blowing away the all-time record snowfall winter. This winter, 90 inches of snowfall was measured at the Jackson Climate Station. That is 40 inches more than the long-term average for December through February. Average is 50 inches.

That ranks the Winter 2016-17 as the third snowiest winter season on record in town. February of 2008-09 holds second place with 98.5 inches, and the winter of 1968-69 still has the all-time record of 114 inches of snowfall.

Water-wise: During the three months of the winter season 2016-17 Jackson had an astonishing 11.85 inches of precipitation, almost a foot of precipitation. That completely washed away the previous record from the wettest winter ever in Jackson. The old record was 9.28 inches of water from the winter of 1964-65.

February 2017 accounted for almost half of this winter’s total precipitation, with 5.75 inches. That is five times the average for February of 1.14 inches and more than double the previous record precipitation of 2.83 inches for February, set back in 1962.

Temperature-wise: It may not seem like it recently, but Winter 2016-17 was colder than normal, overall. December was quite cold, with a mean temperature (average of high and low temperatures) that was 6-degrees colder than normal. January was even colder; with a mean temperature that was 11 degrees colder than the long-term average. February made up for some of this temperature deficit, coming in almost 7-degrees above normal.

Comparing temperatures from that other wet winter of 1964-65 to this winter, the biggest difference was that 1964-65 was warm all three month. It rained in December 1964 with high temperatures in the lower 40’s. It rained in January 1965, with highs also in the lower 40’s. It rained in February 1965, and high temperatures reached 50-degrees, on February 4th, 1965.

This winter, we never hit 40-degrees in December or January, and the winter’s highest temperature was 44-degrees on February 16th, 2017

Bottom-line: For the meteorological winter, the mountain snowpack was the deepest ever; snowfall and water amounts were second only to the winter of 1996-97. The Town of Jackson had more snow during the winters of 2008-09 and 1968-69, but broke the record for total precipitation this winter season.

Jim is the chief meteorologist at mountainweather.com and has been forecasting weather in Jackson Hole and the Teton Range for more than 25 years.