Here are the updated outlook maps for this winter, heading into 2022. These are from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and were updated in mid-December 2021 and are the most current outlooks for temperatures and precipitation for the period January through March 2022 for the USA.

Temperature Outlook: January-March 2022

Precipitation Outlook: January-March 2022

This update continues to show a typical La Niña pattern, with colder and wetter conditions across the Northwestern portion of the United States and drier and warmer across the Southwestern United States. In-between, across Northern California, Utah & Colorado are predicted to have are equal chances (50/50) of seeing above or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

The maps above are the “Two-Class” experimental outlooks, which are slightly different and a little less confusing than the older “Three-Class” outlooks. That is, they use a scale that starts at 50% or greater for above and below normal categories.

Three-Class Outlook from NOAA

The three-class outlooks use a more nebulous scale that starts at 33%. These are shown below for comparison.

My interpretation of these maps is that the tendencies towards below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation in the Northwestern United States are not that strong. The probability percentages listed on these maps are low, indicating they are only “leaning towards” these trends this winter. Same is true for the Southwestern United States.

Alaska and the Southeastern part of the country show the strongest probabilities for colder and warmer temperatures, respectively. Northwest Montana, Northern Idaho and the upper Midwest are the only areas that even approach a better than 50% probability of seeing above normal precipitation. Southern New Mexico and Florida are the only areas with greater than a 50% probability of being drier than normal the rest of this winter.

Take that for what you may and have a Happy New Year!

Post by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey on the Winter Solstice

The first hints of fall weather have begun to arrive in the Rockies, and while the Autumnal Equinox is still a week away, I thought it was time to take a look at what might be in store for winter season, 2021-22. I live in Jackson Hole, WY where the zest for snow never seems to end, no matter what the season.

In this post, I’ll look at various outlooks for Winter 2021-22. I’ve included the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmer’s Almanac predictions; both out in print this week. I’ll also break down the long-range outlook for this winter from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Old Farmer’s Almanac

The Old Farmer’s Almanac for 2022 is the 230th edition of this iconic weather tool. For the first hundred years or so, this familiar yellow jacketed paperback book was essentially the only source for any kind of long-range weather outlooks. The almanac is also stuffed with all sorts of other interesting tidbits of information about the sun, the moon, planets, gardening, etc.

This coming year’s edition has predicted a Cold and Dry winter for the Jackson Hole area. That forecast is also valid for the entire Intermountain Region, including Idaho, Utah, Western Montana, Western Wyoming, and Western Colorado.Western Washington and Oregon, along with all of California, are forecast to have a Mild and Dry winter in 2022.

The Farmer’s Almanac

Not quite as old as the other almanac, the Farmer’s Almanac (the orange covered one) has been around since 1818 and for 200-plus years has been the only other competitor in that market for old-school type forecasts.

Their outlook this year, for our neck of the woods, is rather cryptic in its message. For all of Montana, Wyoming and Colorado the forecast is, and I quote, “Numb’s the Word, Just Shovelin’ Along”. I am sure that most skiers and snowboarders would interpret that to mean, “Cold and Snowy”.

NOAA and ENSO Outlook

The latest forecast made in mid-August and issued by the Climate Prediction Center looking ahead to the December through February time-frame, shows that in Western Wyoming we can expect “Equal Chances” of being above or below average for both precipitation and temperatures.  That’s not exactly solid intel for picturing what kind of winter we’ll have.

If you wanted to hedge in one direction, I’d say hedge towards cooler and near or above normal snowfall. The reason I say that is, the Pacific Northwest is forecast to have below normal temps this winter and better than a 50-percent chance of above normal precipitation. Western Montana also falls under that category of above normal precipitation. Close enough to Jackson Hole for me!

One last thing to consider is the state of the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). Right now, NOAA is saying we are under a “La Nina Watch”. Their most current forecast reads like this: “The central tropical Pacific Ocean is in a neutral climate state, but the odds of at least a weak La Niña emerging this fall have risen to 70-80 percent.”

That is generally good news to me, as the storm track favors the Northern tier of the U.S. in a La Niña, and Jackson Hole usually has better than average snowfall during La Nina winters. How strong that La Niña becomes is also critical, and that remains to be seen over the next several months.

It may not be time to start waxing those boards, but where I live, we have fared very well in recent years, despite the forecasts. Jackson Hole has experienced above average snowfall in the mountains seven out of the last 10 years, including above average seasonal snowfall in the mountains the last six winters in a row.

After 40 years here, I have also concluded that even a bad winter in Jackson Hole is better than a good winter anywhere else.

Post by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey